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research priorities

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Vision is to develop and implement the next generation integrated physical earth system prediction capability at weather and longer time scales, to support days-to-decadal global prediction. To fulfill this vision, the National ESPC will:

  • Extend predictive capability to decades using muli-model, multi-agency ensembles
  • Use ensembles to identify and quantify uncertainty and risk
  • Advance computational and environmental numerical prediction science and technology
  • Enhance our understanding of complex interactions of the earth environment

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Vision is to develop and implement the next generation integrated physical earth system prediction capability at weather and longer time scales, to support days-to-decadal global prediction. To fulfill this vision, the National ESPC will:

  1. Research innovation
  2. Development of forecast skill and technology goals and objectives
  3. Evaluation and identification of [prioritized] R&D activities and performance metrics
  4. Interagency collaboration
The National ESPC will improve environmental predictions and help decision makers address critical planning and policy issues by extending the national predictive capability from hours and days to seasonal, annual, and decadal time periods through improved, coupled global environmental prediction.

 

Outcomes and End Products
The National ESPC is an operational global, coupled, multi-model ensemble system and a research pipeline for
improvements providing:
Nowcasts (minutes to hours) for tornadoes, severe weather, aviation, and wind energy support.
Short-range forecasts (hours to days) for the general public, Department of Defense operations and planning, emergency management, and commerce.
Medium-range forecasts (days to a month) for agriculture, the power industry, emergency planners, Arctic ice, and Department of Defense planning.
Predictions (intra-seasonal to inter-annual) of tropical cyclone activity, drought, flooding, heat waves, and freeze / thaw dates, for informing agriculture planning, water resource management, commerce, and Department of Defense strategic planning.
Projections (intra- and inter-decadal) of patterns driving sea level rise for coastal infrastructure development, and precipitation / snow pack pattern changes for agriculture and water management or transportation infrastructure, politically destabilizing events. 

OAR HEADQUARTERS

301-713-2458

1315 East-West Highway
     Silver Spring, MD 20910

national.espc@noaa.gov

About Us

The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) was formed in 2010, with an updated Charter in 2016, between the original NUOPC partners with the addition of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Energy (DOE), and National Science Foundation (NSF) to improve coordination and collaboration across federally sponsored environmental research and operational prediction communities for scientific development and operational implementation of improved global prediction at the weather-to-climate interface.

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