The National ESPC’s role in improving capabilities for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) prediction is to foster and coordinate:
- Support for North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) / subseasonal ensembles via a partnership of the willing.
- Optimized NMME / subseasonal ensembles to address the S2S prediction problem.
- Improved skill in the S2S timescale with fully coupled systems.
- Structure for interagency programmatic ventures and [prioritized investments.
The S2S / S2D prediction problem is challenging, which is why the National ESPC’s Executive Steering Group identified it as a focus area. By building on the successes of the Navy in short-range operational forecasting and collaborative efforts, National ESPC partners can leverage existing National ESPC working groups and strategies such as interoperability, while maintaining a focus on research to operations (R2O), to solve these important problems.
Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support