Model Component capability


Pertubed Initial Conditions

Stochastic Parameterizations

  • Many different forcast model (dynamical cores) are run
  • Accounts for model-based bias
  • Used for weather, S2S, and climate timescales
  • Multi-physics ensembles use the same core but vary parameterizations
  • Initial conditions differ due to differing initialization schemes
  • Examples: NAEFS, NMME, SREF
  • Many slightly different, equally valid initial conditions are applied to one model
  • Retains model bias
  • Accounts for initial condition uncertainty and chaos
  • Appropriate for weather time scales
  • Example: GEFS
  • Random perturbations are included within the equations of motion, or added to the constants in physics parameterizations (stochastic physics) sampling the probability distribution of uncertainty
  • Theoretically accounts for model uncertainty
  • Not operational at this time

Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal



1315 East-West Highway
     Silver Spring, MD 20910

About Us

The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) was formed in 2010, with an updated Charter in 2016, between the original NUOPC partners with the addition of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Energy (DOE), and National Science Foundation (NSF) to improve coordination and collaboration across federally sponsored environmental research and operational prediction communities for scientific development and operational implementation of improved global prediction at the weather-to-climate interface.


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