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Model Component capability

Multi-Model

Pertubed Initial Conditions

Stochastic Parameterizations

  • Many different forcast model (dynamical cores) are run
  • Accounts for model-based bias
  • Used for weather, S2S, and climate timescales
  • Multi-physics ensembles use the same core but vary parameterizations
  • Initial conditions differ due to differing initialization schemes
  • Examples: NAEFS, NMME, SREF
  • Many slightly different, equally valid initial conditions are applied to one model
  • Retains model bias
  • Accounts for initial condition uncertainty and chaos
  • Appropriate for weather time scales
  • Example: GEFS
  • Random perturbations are included within the equations of motion, or added to the constants in physics parameterizations (stochastic physics) sampling the probability distribution of uncertainty
  • Theoretically accounts for model uncertainty
  • Not operational at this time


Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal

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