National ESPC Conference Presentations

WWRP/WCRP S2S/S2D Conferences, 17-21 September 2018

National Earth System Prediction Capability: Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Seasonal to Subseasonal Workshop


The National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) is an interagency effort between NOAA, DOD, NASA, DOE, and NSF designed to increase collaboration, efficiency, and effectiveness in the computational modeling community. The National ESPC conducted a workshop from 28 February to 2 March 2018 aimed at a broad enterprise discussion of user needs, agency capabilities, products, gaps between needs and capabilities. Potential operational and technological solutions to address those gaps, especially potential post-processing solutions, developer metrics, and reliability metrics were explored. Metrics for this purpose can be categorized in the following groups: 

  1. Input: observations, their quality, quantity, distribution etc.
  2. Process: measuring characterization of physical processes. Can range from detailed (moisture, interface fluxes) to collective (el Nino, TC genesis)
  3. Output: specific forecast variables, to include thresholds such as drought, flood, frost, monsoon, TC genesis)
  4. Outcome: improved forecasts, increased reliability
  5. Impact: user/customer benefit from decisions based on forecasts (safety, economy, preparedness).

This workshop emphasized (2) through (4).

This workshop provided an initial opportunity for community input to the draft S2S prediction report that NOAA is preparing in response to the Weather Act of 2017, which directs and authorizes NOAA to improve temperature and rainfall prediction and impacts such as drought, sea-ice extent etc. at two weeks to two years. The act also directs NOAA to define operational goals and objectives for these improvements and to reach out to other Agencies, academia and the private sector to help in defining the forecast, observing, monitoring, and research needs to meet these goals and objectives.  National ESPC worked to gain consensus on the types of metrics to be considered in these time scales and facilitate conversation between the operational and R&D communities on how to measure performance of systems. Workshop attendance included representation from various Federal agencies participating in Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) and representatives from the scientific and commercial communities. 

The workshop focused on the 2016 NAS S2S report, user needs, and metrics to support earth system development.  Further discussions highlighted user needs for product understanding, reliability, and application to decision support. The ESPC staff will present key workshop findings.

The National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) is a US interagency partnership to improve the common science and earth system modeling capability, to better support each agency’s mission from 0 to 30 years. ESPC conducted a workshop in February for a broad enterprise discussion of S2S user needs, agency capabilities, gaps between needs and capabilities, and products to support decisions.  Discussions also centered around verification metrics to better support earth system development.

AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, 11-16 February 2018

Ocean Model Coupling (Air-Ocean, Ice-Ocean, Wave-Ocean) on Subseasonal Through Interannual Timescales to Support the National Earth System Prediction Capability


Important decisions in sectors ranging from food security and public health, emergency management and national security rely on forecast information globally and at time scales beyond traditional weather limits. Prediction at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales and beyond require full coupling between the components of the physical earth system. National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) is a partnership of five Federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues, especially coordinated transitions or research to operational or application use, across time scales ranging from synoptic to decadal. The partnership’s focus is on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and intraseasonal to interannual (ISI) time range for which both initial conditions and boundary forcings drive the state of the coupled air-ocean-land-ice environment. This session is looking for papers describing improvements to ocean coupling (air-ocean, ice-ocean, wave-ocean) technologies and effective data assimilation for coupled systems, both for weather prediction to support improved S2S/ISI prediction as well as internally consistent ocean and atmosphere modeling. Technologies should improve representation of important coupled phenomena such as MJO, PDO, ENSO, IOD and others. (AGU Ocean Sciences Oral Session, Poster Session)

Session Talks

Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model by Neil P. Barton et al.

Coupled high-resolution ocean-ice and ocean-atmosphere-ice reanalyses at the Naval Research Laboratory by James G. Richman et al.

Ocean Coupling in the NCEP Unified Global Coupled System by Jiande Wang

Subseasonal prediction experiment using an atmosphere-ocean coupled data assimilation system by Yuhei Takaya et al.

High Resolution Coupled Lake-Ice Modeling of Lakes Erie, Michigan, and Huron by James Andrew Kessler et al.

On the importance of Coupling for Modeling and Prediction of the Arctic System by Wieslaw Maslowski et al.

Seasonal Prediction Experiments Suggest Re-emergence of Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomalies Impact Significantly on North Atlantic Winter Climate by Bablu Sinha et al.

Applications of an Unstructured Grid Surface Wave Model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to the Arctic Ocean: the 'ice retreat-wave growth' positive feedback mechanism by Yang Zhang et al.

Session Posters

Coupled data assimilation in support of the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability by Sergey Frolov et al.

Evaluation of a Global Coupled Ensemble Forecasting System by Prasad G. Thoppil et al.

Accounting for Error in an Ensemble of Seasonal Forecasts using a High Resolution Global Coupled Model by William James Crawford

Modeled Air-Sea Heat Flux Versus In-Situ Data: Statistical Comparison by Silvia Gremes-Cordero et al.

A Regional-scale Coupled Ocean-Wave Modeling System by Jayaram Veeramony et al.

Improve Regional Climate Modeling using the Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM) by Pengfei Xue et al.

The Polar Coupled Project at NCEP/EMC by Denise Worthen et al.

AMS 98th Annual Meeting, 7-11 January 2018

Verification and Validation on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale to support the National Earth System Prediction Capability


Important decisions in sectors ranging from food security and public health, emergency management, and national security rely on communicated forecast and uncertainty information globally and at time scales beyond traditional weather limits. National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) is a partnership of five federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues across time scales ranging from synoptic to decadal, especially improving the two-way connection between research and operational prediction. 

The partnership’s greatest focus is on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time range for which both initial conditions and boundary forcings drive the state of the coupled air−ocean−land−ice environment. With the goal of improving assessments of S2S model prediction skill, prediction tools or technologies, and providing process-based feedback on model performance, this session is accepting papers describing verification and validation techniques and tools on the S2S time scale, for user needs with fundamental time scales extending across this time frame such as watershed prediction reliability, planting season precipitation, potential frost days, Arctic or Great Lakes ice breakup dates, ice extent, etc. (AMS Session)

Session Talks (all links external)

U.S Air Force Weather Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Pushing the Limits of Predictability to Optimize National Defense by Ralph O. Stoffler

Operational Environmental Modeling Across Scales by Hendrik Tolman

NOAA’s Strategy to Improve Operational Subseasonal Prediction for Weather Outlooks by Timothy L. Schneider

NCEP's Next Generation Coupled Forecast System for Subseasonal to Seasonal Scales by Arun Chawla

Examining the Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Coupling on Subseasonal Prediction Skill using a Prototype Unified Global Coupled System at NCEP by Suranjana Saha

Real-Time and Retrospective 3−4-Week Forecasting for the NOAA Subseasonal Experiment with the FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model by Stan Benjamin

Spatial Approaches to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions by Barbara Brown

AGU Fall Meeting 2017, 11-15 December 2017

Subseasonal to Decadal Forecasting in the  Earth System Prediction Capability

Tropical and subtropical regions of North and South America feature summertime monsoon circulations, associated with seasonal changes in regional precipitation. These monsoons are of vital importance for regional water resources, agriculture and ecosystems. Relatively less studied than other monsoons, the American monsoons’ variability at subseasonal to interannual and interdecadal variability time scales remains elusive. Furthermore, as global climate warms, an understanding of variability and extremes is an even more pressing challenge.

NOAA’s Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range by Dr. Tim Schneider

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) to Advance National Weather Service Predictions for Weeks Three to Four by Dr. Anarita Mariotti 

Coupled Data Assimilation in Navy Earth System Prediction Capability by Dr. Charlie Barron

Development of a Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS) at NCEP for sub seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction by Dr. Xingren Wu

Addressing Cloud-Radiation Errors from Four Hour to Four Week Model Prediction by Dr. Stan Benjamin

AMS 97th Annual Meeting, 22-26 January 2017

Session:  The National Earth System Prediction Capability Agenda for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)

The National Earth System Prediction Capability is a partnership of five Federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues from weather to decadal time scales. 2015 WMO and the 2016 NRC reports on S2S call for broad US and international collaboration between academia, operational centers, private industry and the user community to advance earth system predictive capability beyond two weeks and to build and sustain a coordinated US S2S research capability. The National ESPC agencies will present their agenda to address these reports and move the US toward a robust S2S research and predictive capability. Expected presentations: - National ESPC overview and goals for S2S - National ESPC research member agencies (principals or program managers) present their agency agenda for building an S2S research community and their primary research focus areas. - National ESPC operational member agencies present their agenda for addressing S2S operations, support for research access to S2S prediction systems, and plans for user involvement in product development.

NOAA MAPP Research and Transition Initatives by Dr. Heather Archambaut

U.S. Navy Research Contributions to the National Earth System Capability Effort by Dr. Daniel Eleuterio

U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Verification and Validation by Dr. Neil Barton

NOAA ESRL Sub-Seasonal skill with Advnced Coupled Models by Dr. Stan Benjamin

Sources of Variablity in model skill during the 7 January 2013 Stratospheric Warming Event by Dr. Jonathan Blufer

NOAA OAR Contributions to Sub-Seaonal Forecasting that will Benefit National Capabilities by Dr. John Cortinas

How the Earth System Prediction Suite Contributes to Coordinated US S2S Research and Prediction Capability by Dr. Cecelia DeLuca

Next Generation NWP using a Spectral Element Dynamical Core by Dr. Jim Doyle

AGU Fall Meeting 2016, 12-16 December 2016

Session: Stochastic and Coupled Modeling for Seamless Earth System Prediction Capabilities

Five Federal Agencies (DOD – Navy & Air Force, DOE, NASA, NSF, and NOAA – NWS & OAR) signed a charter April 2016 creating the National Earth System Prediction Capability. This effort envisions an operational National capability for a coupled earth (air, ocean, wave, ice, land, space) prediction system (or system of systems) to support National needs from days to decades, with highest priority the two week to inter-annual time frame. This session will introduce the sponsoring agencies, their scientific goals, and supporting efforts. Relevant papers to be considered for the session include sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction systems (coupling, coupled data assimilation, multimodel ensembles, verification and validation, etc.), especially systems coordinated between participating agency partners.  Additional topics include predictability related to slow mode earth system processes (ENSO, MJO, QBO, PDO, etc.) and societal needs for longer-range predictions.

Ocean Ensemble Forecasting in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability by Dr. Clark Rowley

Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting at NASA in support of the National Earth System Prediction Capability by Dr. David Consadine

The DoD's High Performance Computing Modernization Program by Dr. William Burnett

Monitoring the Performance of the CFS v3 Development by Dr. Malaquias Peña

NOAA Climate Program Office Contributions to the National ESPC by Dr. Wayne Higgins


AMS 96th Annual Meeting, 10-14 January 2016

Session:  Towards Operational Earth System Prediction for Informed Decision Support

In the face of increased public and Federal awareness and concern over high-impact weather and ocean events globally and the changing climate environment, a number of calls have appeared in the literature seeking revolutionary collaboration among research sponsors and operational environmental prediction agencies and between the weather and climate communities to significantly advance our prediction capability to benefit mitigation, response and policy. Two partnership have been combined: National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC and Earth System Prediction Capability have been combined in the National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). National EPSC represents part of the U.S. response to this need for improved coordination of research towards more skillful and extended range operational environmental prediction.

U. S. Navy Participation in National ESPC by RDML Tim Gallaudet

National Science Foundation and the National ESPC by Dr. Pat Harr

Office of Naval Research and the National ESPC by Dr. Daniel Eleuterio

NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the National ESPC by Mr. Craig McClean

National Weather Service contributions to the National ESPC


Archived National ESPC Conference Documents